Netherlands Polls: Key Players and Main Issues in Snap Vote
Voters in the Holland are preparing to potentially replace the most conservative administration in recent memory with a more moderate and pragmatic coalition during early general elections scheduled for 29 October.
What's Happening and Why It Matters
Snap general elections were triggered after the breakdown of the previous government in June, when rightwing figure Geert Wilders withdrew his party from an already unstable and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.
Wilders' party had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the BBB party, NSC party and center-right VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' government allies considered him too toxic for the premier position, which ultimately went to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an anti-immigration polemicist who has lived under police protection for twenty years, began criticizing from the sidelines.
Wilders finally caused the government collapse on June 3 after his allies declined to implement a radical comprehensive anti-immigration plan that included deploying the army to guard frontiers, turning back all asylum seekers, closing most asylum centers and repatriating all Syria nationals.
While backing of the PVV has declined, surveys suggest the rightwing, anti-Islam party is once more projected to secure the largest representation in parliament. However, major Netherlands political parties have collectively rejected entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
At least 16 parties are forecast to enter parliament, but none is projected to win more than approximately 20% of the vote. Typically, the next Dutch government, generally an influential player on the European and global scene, will emerge only after alliance talks that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Political Landscape
The parliament contains 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 mandates to form a majority. No individual group ever manages this, and the Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments for over 100 years.
Parliament is elected every four years – earlier if administrations fail – through proportional representation, based on an certified roster of candidates in a single, nationwide constituency: any party that secures 0.67% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
Similar to much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been characterized in modern times by a significant drop in backing of the historical ruling parties from the moderate right and left, whose share of the vote has shrunk from more than 80% in the 1980s to barely two-fifths now.
In the Netherlands, this trend has been paralleled by a spectacular proliferation of minor political groups: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a senior citizens' party, a young people's party, a animal rights party, a basic income advocacy group, and a party for sport.
Key Players and Primary Concerns
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, projected to lose up to eight of the thirty-seven mandates it secured last election. It proposes, among other policies, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the military to fight "urban violence", and an end to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two political groups, of the moderate right and left, are closely competing after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Dutch politics from the end of the seventies to the early 90s, and again in the early 2000s, but dropped to just five seats in the last election.
However, under Henri Bontenbal, its promising new figure, who entered politics only four years ago, the party has bounced back with a campaign highlighting the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a promise of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the environmentalist party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is anticipated to become a full-blown merger, is on track to win a similar number, according to polling averages.
Led by the experienced former European commissioner its leader, it has made building more new homes its primary focus, and has debatedly proposed a net migration cap of between 40,000 and 60,000 people annually in its manifesto.
Three other parties appear set to be important players in the next legislature.
The liberal-progressive D66 is on course to increase representation – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its straight-talking youthful head, with a campaign focused on residential construction (it proposes to construct ten new urban centers) and an "personal minimum income" for recipients.
The center-right VVD, the party of the former prime minister (now Nato chief), is forecast to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its present twenty-four, with its head, accused of moving the group excessively rightward, blamed for its decrease. It is promising corporate tax reductions and reduced social benefits.
The populist, hardline conservative JA21 is a spin-off from another far-right party – the once popular, now controversy-plagued Forum for Democracy – and appears to be profiting from an departure of supporters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could secure fourteen mandates.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both other partners in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the farmer and centrist parties, are expected to decline, with the centrist party not even sure of representation in parliament.
The top issues currently have been immigration, with several – sometimes violent – demonstrations against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of accommodation (the country is short of four hundred thousand residences).
Potential New Government
Considering the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are actually possible is just as important as who finishes first (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no significant group will partner with Wilders, who insists he wants to lead a minority government).
Following the vote, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been found, a formateur, typically the head of the largest potential partner, begins negotiating the government program. This often requires months.
Multiple options look plausible, typically including a mix of parties from moderate left and moderate right. The most probable, according to coalition experts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and several minor groups potentially including the conservative party.
