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Initially, Trump seemed to adopt a resolute position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing warnings of "severe ramifications" last August should Russia's president carried on blocking ceasefire discussions, he eventually imposed substantial penalties on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously impacted Putin's capability to support his war effort in the region.

Yet, with his newly presented comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly drafted by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukraine's or European involvement, the former president has seemingly gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's plan would essentially favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while placing the country's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite strong declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", large portions of the plan effectively compromise that very sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his corporate experience, Trump seems to consider the war as a basic territorial dispute, implying ceding Russia a part of Ukrainian territory will appease the ruler. However, Putin's war is not simply about controlling a charred area of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's apparent goal to eliminate it so it stops acts as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the democratic government that his increasing autocracy prevents them.

Land Surrenders

While freezing in status the already separated regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the proposal would require the nation to abandon the whole Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been failed to capture in over a ten years of fighting, this concession would make Ukrainian military defenses severely undermined.

The area is the site of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that are a essential obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, providing Russian forces a open way to the capital in case he later choose to restart the conflict.

Military Restrictions

Then, in a action that would facilitate renewed conflict more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would force the nation to reduce the size of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 soldiers to a cap of 600,000. Notably, the plan sets no such limits on the invading army.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's efforts to depict Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as Nazis, the proposal asserts: "All radical doctrine and practices must be condemned and prohibited." As if to underscore this element, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal sets no condition that the Russian leader endanger his regime by conducting elections in his own country.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the plan includes Russia pledge not to "attack bordering nations" and to "incorporate in regulation its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". But considering that the Russian leadership has broken comparable agreements in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow committed to a halt in fighting and a return of seized areas in the Donbas to the government – how should the international community trust Putin this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international security guarantees. Although the initiative threatens a "immediate coordinated defense action" in case Russia resume its military campaign, and includes that "Ukraine will receive strong protection assurances", the details range from unclear to troubling. The plan would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from deploying military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thereby blocking the security presence, likely commanded by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Russia from rebuilding his weakened military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Response

An additional side agreement reportedly would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, planned, and sustained aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault threatening the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a armed reaction. However unlike a strong national defense – the nation's primary defense against future Russian aggression – the credibility of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to respond militarily to Putin's attacks, something they have {not